Predicting the potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) yield under climate change using DSSAT model and CMIP6 emission scenarios
Abstract
Aim of the study: Climate change poses one of the most significant threats to global food production, especially for water-intensive crops such as potatoes. This study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on the yield and water productivity of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in the Ardabil region of Iran.
Area of study: The research was conducted in the Ardabil region, located in northwestern Iran, a major potato-growing area characterized by diverse climatic conditions.
Material and methods: Crop coefficients for five potato cultivars were calibrated and validated using field experiment data within the Decision Support System for Agro technology Transfer (DSSAT)-SUBSTOR-Potato model. Climate projections were derived from CMIP6 models, and MRI-ESM2-0 was identified as the most reliable model for the region. The LARS-WG6 model was used for downscaling the climate data. Simulations were conducted under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, and deficit irrigation levels (85% and 70% of full irrigation) were evaluated for late-maturing cultivars (‘Savalan’, 397081-1, and 397082-10).
Main results: Model validation demonstrated a high level of accuracy in simulating potato yield and water productivity under different climatic and management conditions. Climate projections indicate a 3.68% increase in mean temperature and a 25.4% decrease in annual precipitation by the end of the 21st century. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations exhibited complex interactions with potato growth. Tuber yield and water productivity are projected to decline by up to 18.5% and 12.3%, respectively. Using late-maturing cultivars with deficit irrigation helped reduce these losses, enhancing yield and water productivity by approximately 15% and 10%, respectively, in the 2030s and 2060s compared with the 2090s.
Research highlights: The DSSAT-SUBSTOR-Potato model proved to be a reliable tool for assessing the impacts of climate change and evaluating management strategies. The integration of climate-resilient cultivars (‘Savalan’, 397081-1, and 397082-10) with optimized irrigation practices can effectively mitigate negative climate effects. The findings offer scientific insights for agricultural policy and food security strategies in climate-vulnerable regions.
Downloads
References
Ababaei B, Sohrabi T, Mirzaei F (2014). Development and application of a planning support system to assess strategies related to land and water resources for adaptation to climate change. Climate Risk Management, 6, 39–50. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2014.11.001
Abdolalizadeh F, Khorshiddoust AM, Jahanbakhsh S (2023). Projection of the future outlook of temperature and precipitation in Urmia Lake basin by the CMIP6 models. Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 55(1), 95–112. http://doi.org/10.22059/JPHGR.2023.352727.1007737
Adavi Z, Moradi R, Saeidnejad AH, Tadayon MR, Mansouri H (2018). Assessment of potato response to climate change and adaptation strategies. Scientia Horticulturae, 228, 91–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scienta.2017.10.017
Adekanmbi T, Wang X, Basheer S, Nawaz RA, Pang T, Hu Y, Liu S (2023). Assessing future climate change impacts on potato yields: A case study for Prince Edward Island, Canada. Foods, 12, 1176. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods12061176
Allen R, Pruitt W (1991). FAO-24 reference evapotranspiration factors. Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, 117, 758–773. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(1991)117:5(758)
Allen R, Pereira L, Raes D, Smith M (1998). Crop evapotranspiration: guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56. FAO, Rome, Italy. https://www.cabidigitallibrary.org/doi/full/10.5555/19991908969
AMDIC (2023). Ardabil Meteorological Data Information Center. Ardabil, Iran. https://ardmet.ir/en/ (accessed on 20 October 2023)
Arora VK, Nath JC, Singh CB (2013). Analyzing potato response to irrigation and nitrogen regimes in a sub-tropical environment using SUBSTOR-Potato model. Agricultural Water Management, 124, 69–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2013.03.021
Bannayan M, Hoogenboom G (2009). Using pattern recognition for estimating cultivar coefficients of a crop simulation model. Field Crops Research, 111, 290–302. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2009.01.007
Bekele D, Alamirew T, Kebede A, Zeleke G, Melesse AM (2018). Modeling climate change impact on the hydrology of Keleta watershed in the Awash River basin, Ethiopia. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 24, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-018-9619-1
Brassard JP, Singh B (2007). Effects of climate change and CO₂ increase on potential agricultural production in southern Quebec, Canada. Climate Research, 34, 105–117. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr034105
Cook BI, Mankin JS, Marvel K, Williams AP, Smerdon JE, Anchukaitis KJ (2020). Twenty-first century drought projections in the CMIP6 forcing scenarios. Earth’s Future, 8, e2019EF001461. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001461
Daccache A, Weatherhead EK, Stalham MA, Knox JW (2011). Impacts of climate change on irrigated potato production in a humid climate. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 151, 1641–1653. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.06.018
Dahal K, Li XQ, Tai H, Creelman A, Bizimungu B (2019). Improving potato stress tolerance and tuber yield under a climate change scenario: A current overview. Frontiers in Plant Science, 10, 563. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2019.00563
Eyring V, Cox PM, Flato GM, Gleckler PJ, Abramowitz G, Caldwell P, et al. (2019). Taking climate model evaluation to the next level. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y
FAOSTAT (2023). Potato production. Available online: https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL (accessed on 22 February 2023)
Fumia N, Pironon S, Rubinoff D, Khoury CK, Gore MA, Kantar MB (2022). Wild relatives of potato may bolster its adaptation to new niches under future climate scenarios. Food and Energy Security, 11, e360. https://doi.org/10.1002/fes3.360
Gebremedhin Y, Alemie Berhe A (2015). Impact of climate change on potato yield (Solanum tuberosum L.) at Mekelle areas, northern Ethiopia. World Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 11, 62–69. http://www.idosi.org/wjas/wjas11(2)15/2.pdf
Goswami B, Hussain R, Kumar PV, Saikia US, Banerjee S (2018). Impact assessment of climate change on potato productivity in Assam using SUBSTOR-Potato model. Journal of Agrometeorology, 20, 105–109. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v20i2.519
Griffin TS, Johnson BS, Ritchie JT (1993). A simulation model for potato growth and development: SUBSTOR-Potato version 2.0. IBSNAT Research Report Series 02, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, USA. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284422981
Handayani T, Gilani SA, Watanabe KN (2019). Climatic changes and potatoes: How can we cope with the abiotic stresses? Breeding Science, 69, 545. https://doi.org/10.1270/jsbbs.19070
Haverkort AJ, Franke AC, Engelbrecht FA, Steyn JM (2013). Climate change and potato production in contrasting South African agro-ecosystems: Effects on land and water use efficiencies. Potato Research, 56, 31–50. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11540-013-9230-4
Hijmans RJ (2003). The effect of climate change on global potato production. American Journal of Potato Research, 80, 271–280. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02855363
Hoogenboom G, Porter CH, Boote KJ, Shelia V, Wilkens PW, Singh U (2019). The DSSAT crop modeling ecosystem. En: Boote KJ (ed.), Advances in Crop Modeling for a Sustainable Agriculture, pp. 173–216. https://doi.org/10.19103/AS.2019.0061.10
Hoogenboom G, Porter CH, Boote KJ, Shelia V, Singh U, Wilkens PW, et al. (2021). Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Version 4.8. DSSAT Foundation, Gainesville, FL, USA. https://dssat.net/tools/
IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers. Cambridge University Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/
Jennings SA, Koehler AK, Nicklin KJ, Deva C, Sait SM, Challinor AJ (2020). Global potato yields increase under climate change with adaptation and CO₂ fertilisation. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 4, 519324. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsufs.2020.519324
Jones JW, Hoogenboom G, Porter CH, Boote KJ, Batchelor WD, Hunt LA, et al. (2003). The DSSAT cropping system model. European Journal of Agronomy, 18, 235–265. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1161-0301(02)00107-7
Karimi V, Karami E, Keshavarz M (2018). Climate change and agriculture: impacts and adaptive responses in Iran. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 17, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(17)61794-5
Kumar Y, Singh R, Kumar A (2021). Performance of SUBSTOR model on growth and yield of potato varieties under different planting dates in a sub-tropical environment. Journal of Agrometeorology, 23, 213–220. https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v23i2.71
Medany M, Hassanein MK (2006). Assessment of the impact of climate change and adaptation on potato production in Egypt. Egyptian Journal of Applied Sciences. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/288648819
Meinshausen M, Nicholls Z, Lewis J, Gidden MJ, Vogel E, Freund M, et al. (2020). The SSP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500. Geoscientific Model Development, 13, 3571–3605. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020
Mosavi SH, Soltani S, Khalilian S (2020). Coping with climate change in agriculture: evidence from Hamadan-Bahar plain in Iran. Agricultural Water Management, 241, 106332. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106332
Rahman A, Abdul Mojid M, Banu S (2018). Climate change impact assessment on three major crops in the north-central region of Bangladesh using DSSAT. International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, 11, 120–125. https://doi.org/10.25165/j.ijabe.20181104.3331
Raymundo R, Asseng S, Robertson R, Petsakos A, Hoogenboom G, Quiroz R, et al. (2018). Climate change impact on global potato production. European Journal of Agronomy, 100, 87–98. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2017.11.008
Reddy TY, Reddi GH (2002). Irrigation water management. En: Principles of Agronomy. Kalyani Publishers, Ludhiana, India, pp. 257–334.
Ritchie JT, Griffin TS, Johnson BS (1995). SUBSTOR functional model of potato growth, development and yield. En: Kabat P et al. (eds), Modelling and Parameterization of the Soil–Plant–Atmosphere System. Wageningen Press, Wageningen, pp. 401–435. https://www.cabidigitallibrary.org/doi/full/10.5555/19970703415
Semenov MA, Barrow EM (2002). LARS-WG: A stochastic weather generator for use in climate impact studies, version 3.0. User’s manual. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/268304865
Sharafati A, Moradi-Tayyebi M, Pezeshki E, Shahid S (2022). Uncertainty of climate change impact on crop characteristics: A case study of Moghan plain in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04074-9
Shayanmehr S, Rastegari-Henneberry S, Sabouhi Sabouni M, Shahnoushi Foroushani N (2020). Climate change and sustainability of crop yield in dry regions. Sustainability, 12, 9890. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12239890
Shrestha S, Thin NMM, Deb P (2014). Assessment of climate change impacts on irrigation water requirement and rice yield for Ngamoeyeik irrigation project in Myanmar. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 5, 427–442. https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2014.114
Soltani S, Mosavi SH, Saghaian SH, Azhdari S, Alamdarlo HN, Khalilian S (2023). Climate change and energy use efficiency in arid and semiarid agricultural areas: A case study of Hamadan-Bahar plain in Iran. Energy, 268, 126553. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.126553
Srivastava RK, Talla A, Swain DK, Panda RK (2019). Quantitative approaches in adaptation strategies to cope with increased temperatures following climate change in potato crop. Potato Research, 62, 175–191. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11540-018-9406-z
Taei Semiromi J, Amiri E, Aeen A, Borumand N, Jowkar M (2018). Evaluation of DSSAT model for potential yield prediction of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) under autumn cropping system (case study: Jiroft, Iran). Journal of Crop Improvement, 19, 893–905. https://doi.org/10.22059/jci.2017.60480
Tooley BE, Mallory EB, Porter GA, Hoogenboom G (2021). Predicting the response of a potato–grain production system to climate change for a humid continental climate using DSSAT. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 307, 108452. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108452
Tourneux C, Devaux A, Camacho MR, Maman P, Ledent JF (2003). Effect of water shortage on six potato genotypes in the highlands of Bolivia (II): water relations and physiological parameters. Agronomy Journal, 23, 181–190. https://doi.org/10.1051/agro:2002080
Vashisht BB, Nigon T, Mulla DJ, Rosen C, Xu H, Twine T, Jalota SK (2015). Adaptation of water and nitrogen management to future climates for sustaining potato yield in Minnesota: Field and simulation study. Agricultural Water Management, 152, 198–206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2015.01.011
Willmott CJ (1982). Some comments on the evaluation of model performance. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 63, 1309–1369. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1982)063<1309:SCOTEO>2.0.CO;2
Xiao G, Zhang F, Qiu Z, Yao Y (2013). Impact of climate change on water use efficiency by wheat, potato and corn in semiarid areas of China. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 181, 108–114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2013.09.019
Yazdandoost F, Moradian S, Izadi A, Aghakouchak A (2021). Evaluation of CMIP6 precipitation simulations across different climatic zones: Uncertainty and model intercomparison. Atmospheric Research, 250, 105369. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105369
Zarrin A, Dadashi-Roudbari A (2021). Projection of future extreme precipitation in Iran based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 144, 643–660. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03568-2
Zhou L, Liao SH, Wang ZH, Wang P, Zhang Y, Yan H, Gao Z, Shen S, Liang X, Wang J (2018). Simulation of winter wheat crop responses to irrigation management using the CERES-Wheat model in the North China Plain. Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 17, 1181–1193. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2095-3119(17)61818-5
Copyright (c) 2025 Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
© CSIC. Manuscripts published in both the print and online versions of this journal are the property of the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, and quoting this source is a requirement for any partial or full reproduction.
All contents of this electronic edition, except where otherwise noted, are distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence. You may read the basic information and the legal text of the licence. The indication of the CC BY 4.0 licence must be expressly stated in this way when necessary.
Self-archiving in repositories, personal webpages or similar, of any version other than the final version of the work produced by the publisher, is not allowed.
