Predicción del rendimiento de la patata (Solanum tuberosum L.) bajo condiciones de cambio climático utilizando el modelo DSSAT y escenarios de emisión CMIP6
Resumen
Objetivo del estudio: El cambio climático representa uno de los mayores desafíos para la producción mundial de alimentos, especialmente para cultivos que requieren gran cantidad de agua como la patata. Este estudio tuvo como objetivo evaluar los efectos del cambio climático en el rendimiento y la productividad del agua de la patata (Solanum tuberosum L.) en la región de Ardabil, Irán.
Área del estudio: Región de Ardabil, situada en el noroeste de Irán, caracterizada por condiciones climáticas variables y una importante producción de patata.
Material y métodos: Se calibraron y validaron los coeficientes de cultivo de cinco variedades de patata utilizando datos de experimentos de campo dentro del modelo DSSAT-SUBSTOR-Potato. Las proyecciones climáticas se obtuvieron de los modelos CMIP6, identificándose el MRI-ESM2-0 como el más confiable para la región. Se empleó el modelo LARS-WG6 para la reducción de escala de los datos climáticos. Se realizaron simulaciones bajo el escenario SSP2-4.5 y se evaluaron niveles de riego deficitario (85% y 70% del riego completo) para variedades de maduración tardía (‘Savalan’, 397081-1, y 397082-10).
Resultados principales: La validación del modelo confirmó una alta precisión en la simulación del rendimiento y la productividad del agua de la patata bajo diversas condiciones climáticas y de manejo. Las proyecciones climáticas indican un aumento del 3,68% en la temperatura media y una disminución del 25,4% en la precipitación anual hacia finales del siglo XXI. Los niveles crecientes de CO2 atmosférico mostraron interacciones complejas con el crecimiento de la papa. Se proyecta que el rendimiento de los tubérculos y la productividad del agua disminuyan hasta en un 18,5% y 12,3%, respectivamente. El uso de variedades de maduración tardía bajo riego deficitario mitigó parcialmente estas pérdidas, mejorando el rendimiento y la productividad del agua en un 15% y 10%, respectivamente, en las décadas de 2030 y 2060 comparado con la década de 2090.
Aspectos destacados de la investigación: El modelo DSSAT-SUBSTOR-Potato demostró ser robusto para simular los impactos del cambio climático y evaluar estrategias de manejo. Variedades adaptadas al clima (‘Savalan’, 397081-1, y 397082-10) combinadas con estrategias de riego optimizadas pueden reducir los impactos negativos del cambio climático. Los resultados proporcionan información científica para políticas agrícolas y estrategias de seguridad alimentaria en regiones vulnerables al clima.
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