El control de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en España: costes para los sectores agrarios
Resumen
Empleando un modelo dinámico recursivo de equilibrio general computable (EGC) de la economía española, este estudio analiza el impacto de las políticas medioambientales de Kioto y de la Unión Europea (el acuerdo ‘20/20/20’), sobre distintas actividades agrarias hasta 2020. En comparación con el escenario de referencia, se pronostican caídas en el PIB y el empleo de un 2,1% y 2,4%, respectivamente, en 2020, mientras que el índice de precios al consumo sube un 3,4%. En agricultura, el índice de producción (que cae un 4,3%) y el de precios (aumenta un 7,7%), empeoran y además los ingresos acumulados de los agricultores bajan 1.510 millones de euros en 2020. El impacto más acusado en el sector agrario se atribuye a la mayor intensidad de sus emisiones donde se estima un coste marginal de reducción de 86 € t-1 de CO2 equivalente para 2020, lo cual es consistente con las estimaciones existentes en la bibliografía. Además se observa que la combinación óptima de reducción de emisiones en los diferentes sectores agrarios depende del grado de sustitución de las actividades emisoras. A la vista de las pérdidas de ingresos observadas en el sector agrario, se contempla un escenario de mitigación de coste-cero para los agricultores, semejante a un pago de condicionalidad, entre 2013 y 2020. Los resultados señalan una mitigación en el incremento de los precios de los alimentos y una redistribución en la combinación óptima de las emisiones en los sectores agrarios.Descargas
Citas
Ancev T, 2011. Policy considerations for mandating agriculture in a greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme. Appl Econ Perspect Policy 33(1): 99-115.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppq031
Bhringer, C, Rutherford TF, 2010. The costs of compliance: a CGE assessment of Canadas policy options under the Kyoto protocol. The World Econ 33: 177-211.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01229.x
Burniaux J, Troung T, 2002. GTAP-E: an energy-environmental version of the GTAP model. GTAP Technical Paper No.16, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA.
Capros P, Mantzos L, Papandreou V, Tasios N, 2008. Model-based analysis of the 2008 EU policy package on climate change and renewables. Report to DG Environment, E3MLab, Nat Tech Univ of Athens, Greece.
De Cara S, Jayet PA, 2006. Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in EU agriculture: An assessment of the costs of reducing agricultural emissions and enhancing carbon sinks in agricultural soils, European Commission, INSEA.
De Cara S, Vermont B, 2011. Policy considerations for mandating agriculture in an greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme: a comment. Appl Econ Perspect Policy, 33(4): 668-672.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppr025
Dellink RB, Hofkes MW, Van Ierland EC, Verbruggen H, 2004. Dynamic modelling of pollution abatement in a CGE framework. Econ Modell 21: 965-989.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2003.10.009
Dixon P, Rimmer M, 2002. Dynamic general equilibrium modelling for forecasting and policy. North Holland Press, Elsevier.
EC, 2009. Adapting to climate change: the challenge for European agriculture and rural areas, Annex I, White Paper. European Comission, COM(2009) 147.
EC, 2011. Stability Programme, Spain 2011-14. European Comission. Available in http://www.meh.es/enGB/Paginas/Programas_de_Estabilidad_y_Nacional_de_Reformas.aspx. [April 2011].
Edwards TH, Hutton JP, 1999. The allocation of carbon permits in one country: a general equilibrium analysis of the United Kingdom. Dept Econ, Univ Warwick, WP, Coventry, UK.
Elbehri A, Pearson K, 2005. Implementing bilateral tariff rate quotas in GTAP using GEMPACK. GTAP Technical Paper No.18, Purdue Univ, West Lafayette, IN, USA.
European Parliament, 2009a. Decision 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council, p. 2, paragraph 6.
European Parliament, 2009b. Directive 29/2009/EC amending Directive 87/2003/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council.
EUROSTAT, 2012. European Comission, available online at http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/themes [Jan 2012].
FEGA, 2010. Informes sobre la financiacin de la PAC en Espaa. Fondo Espaol de Garantia Agraria. Available online at http://www.fega.es/PwfGcp/es/accesos_directos/informes/infdw_total_ayudas_percibidas_feaga.jsp [Sept 2010].
Fernndes-Val I, 2003. Household labour supply: evidence for Spain. Invest Econ 27(2): 239-275.
Frandsen SE, Gersfelt B, Jensen HG, 2003. Decoupling support in agriculture, impacts of redesigning European agricultural support. Rev Urban Region Dev Stud 15(2): 106-131.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-940X.2003.00068.x
Golub A, Henderson B, Hertel T, 2011. Livestock GHG mitigation: policy effectiveness and food security. 14th Ann Conf Global Economic Analysis, Venice, Italy, June 16-18.
Gonzlez-Eguino M, 2011. Los costes de mitigar el cambio climtico: un anlisis dinmico de equilibrio general aplicado. Rev Econ Apl 56(XIX): 89-121. [In Spanish].
Hertel T, Lee HL, Rose S, Sohngen B, 2008. Modeling land-use related greenhouse gas sources and sinks and their mitigation potential. GTAP Working Paper No. 44, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA.
IEA, 2011. International Energy Agency database. Available online at http://data.iea.org/IEASTORE/DEFAULT.ASP [Oct 2010].
IMF, 2011. World economic outlook database. International Monetary Fund. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/weodata/index.aspx [April 2011].
INE, 2009. La encuesta continua de presupuestos familiares. Instituto Nacional de Estadstica. Available online at http://www.ine.es/jaxi/menu.do?type=pcaxis&path=%2Ft25/p458&file=inebase&L=0 [Oct 2010]. [In Spanish].
INE, 2010. Marco input-output 2007. Contabilidad nacional de Espaa. Instituto Nacional de Estadstica. Available online at http://www.ine.es/daco/daco42/cne00/cneio2000.htm. [Oct 2010]. [In Spanish].
Joskow PL, Marron DB, 1992. What does a Megawatt really cost? Evidence from utility conservation programs. Energ J 13(4): 41-74.
Keeney R, Hertel TH, 2005. GTAP-AGR: a framework for assessing the implications of multilateral changes in agricultural policies. GTAP Technical Paper No.24, Purdue Univ, West Lafayette, IN, USA.
Labandeira X, Rodrguez M, 2006. The effects of a sudden CO2 reduction in Spain. In: Economic modelling of climate change and energy policies (De Miguel C., Labandeira X, Manzano B, eds.). Ed Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, pp: 79-92.
Labandeira X, Rodrguez M, 2010. Wide and narrow approaches to national climate policies: a case study for Spain. Climate Policy 10(1): 51-69.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3763/cpol.2007.0458
Labandeira X, Labeaga JM, Rodrguez M, 2004. Green tax reforms in Spain. Eur Environ 14(5): 290-299.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eet.361
Labandeira X, Linares P, Rodrguez M, 2009a. An integrated approach to simulate the economic impacts of carbon emissions trading. Energ J 30: 217-237.
Labandeira X, Labeaga JM, Rodrguez M, 2009b. An integrated economic and distributional analysis of environmental policies. Energy Policy 27(12): 5776-5786.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.08.041
Leip A, Weiss F, Wassenaar T, Perez I, Fellmann T, Loudjani P, Tubiello F, Grandgirard D, Monni S, Biala K, 2010. Evaluation of the livestock sector's contribution to the EU greenhouse gas emissions (GGELS) -final report. European Commission, Joint Research Centre.
Lips M, Rieder P, 2005. Abolition of raw milk quota in the European Union: a CGE analysis at the member country level. J Agr Econ 56(1): 1-17.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-9552.2005.tb00119.x
Ludena C, Hertel TW, Preckel PV, Foster K, Nin A, 2006. Productivity growth and convergence in crop, ruminant and non ruminant production: measurement and forecasts. GTAP Working Paper no. 35. Purdue Univ, West Lafayette, IN, USA.
MARM, 2008. Anuario de estadstica 2008 (Datos 2007 y 2008). Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Medio Rural y Marino, Madrid. Available online at http://marm.es/es/estadistica/temas/anuario-de-estadistica/2008/default.aspx. [In Spanish].
MARM, 2010. Gua practica de la fertilizacin racional de los cultivos en Espaa: Parte II Abonado de los principios cultivos en Espaa, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Medio Rural y Marino, Madrid. [In Spanish].
McCarl BA, Schneider UA, 2000. US Agricultures role in a greenhouse gas emission mitigation world: an economic perspective. Rev Agr Econ 22(1): 134-159.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1058-7195.t01-1-00011
Moran D, MacLeod M, Wall E, Eory V, Pajot G, Matthews R, McVittie A, Barnes A, Rees B, Moxey A, Williams A, Smith P, 2008. UK marginal abatement cost curves for the agriculture and land use, land-use change and forestry sectors out to 2022, with qualitative analysis of options to 2050. Final Report to the Committee on Climate Change, London. Available in http://theccc.org.uk/pdfs/SAC-CCC;%20UK%20MACC%20for%20ALULUCF;%20Final%20Report%202008-11.pdf [Jan 2012].
Moro D, Sckokai P, 2000. Heterogeneous preferences in household food consumption in Italy. Eur Rev Agr Econ 27(3): 305-323.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/erae/27.3.305
Narayanan BG, Walmsley TL, 2008. Global trade, assistance and production: GTAP 7 data base. Centre for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue Univ, West Lafayette, IN, USA.
OECD, 2003. The effects of quantitative constraints on the degree of decoupling of crop support measures. Directorate for Food Agriculture and Fisheries, Committee for Agriculture. Available online at http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/14/3/34996009.pdf [November 2010].
OECD/FAO, 2011. Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development/ Food And Agricultural Organisation, Agricultural Outlook 2011-2020. Available online at http://www.oecd.org/pages/0,3417,en_36774715_36775671_1_1_1_1_1,00.html.
Parry I, 2002. Adjusting carbon cost analyses to account for prior tax distortions. Discussion Paper 02-47, Resources for the Future Institute, Washington DC, USA.
Prez-Domnguez I, 2005. Greenhouse gases: inventories, abatement costs and markets for emission permits in European agriculture. A modelling approach. PhD thesis, Institut fr Agrarpolitik, Marktforschung und Wirtschaftssoziologie der Rheinischen Friedrich-Wilhelms, Univ Bonn, Germany.
Renwick A, Sanjun AI, Philippidis G, 2007. DEFRA-Tap: Tailoring the GTAP Model for DEFRA, Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA).
Rose S, Lee HL, 2009. Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions data for climate change. In: Economic analysis of land use in global climate change policy (Hertel TW, Rose SK, Tol RSJ, eds). Ed Routledge, Oxford, UK.
Sturm V, 2011. Taking into account the emissions from the production and use of mineral fertilisers by imposing a carbon tax. 14th Ann Conf Global Econ Anal, Venice, Italy, June 16-18.
UNFCCC, 2011. Greenhouse gas data inventory. UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Available online at http://unfccc.int/ghg_data/ghg_data_unfccc/items/4146.php [Feb 2011].
US EIA, 2010. Annual energy outlook: 2010 with projections to 2035. US Energy Information Administration, Washington DC.
Van Heerden J, Gerlagh R, Blignaut J, Horridge M, Hess S, Mabugo R, Mabugo M, 2006. Searching for triple dividends in South Africa: fighting CO2 pollution & poverty while promoting growth. Energ J 27(2): 113-141.
Vermont B, De Cara S, 2010 How costly is mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture? A meta analysis. Ecol Econ 69: 1373-1386.
© CSIC. Los originales publicados en las ediciones impresa y electrónica de esta Revista son propiedad del Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, siendo necesario citar la procedencia en cualquier reproducción parcial o total.
Salvo indicación contraria, todos los contenidos de la edición electrónica se distribuyen bajo una licencia de uso y distribución “Creative Commons Reconocimiento 4.0 Internacional ” (CC BY 4.0). Consulte la versión informativa y el texto legal de la licencia. Esta circunstancia ha de hacerse constar expresamente de esta forma cuando sea necesario.
No se autoriza el depósito en repositorios, páginas web personales o similares de cualquier otra versión distinta a la publicada por el editor.
