A thermal forecasting model for the overwintering generation of cotton bollworm by remote sensing in the southeast of Caspian Sea

Keywords: Degree-Day (DD) model, Land Surface Temperature (LST), Helicoverpa armigera


Aim of study: Cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera) is a key pest of cotton all around the world. The Degree-Day (DD) model, as a reliable forecasting approach, is based on the cumulatively effective temperature which must be received by the pests to complete their life cycle. The main objective of the current research was the feasibility of using two accessible thermal data to predict the emergence time of the first generation of H. armigera.

Area of study: Golestan province of Iran

Material and methods: The lower temperature threshold (T0) and the thermal constant (k) were calculated by separately incubating batches of 10 pupae (≥24 h) at a wide range of temperatures (20, 25, 30, 35, and 40 ) in laboratory conditions. The thermal requirements of the overwintering generation were estimated via two types of thermal data sources, i.e., Land Surface Temperature (LST) of Terra® satellite and synoptic meteorological stations from January 21st, 2020 to the end of May 2020.

Main results: T0 and k of the pupal stage were found to be 9.75±1.41°C and 250.57±4.66 (DD), respectively, via the linear regression and 10.26±1.09°C and 240.85±6.71 (DD) through Ikemoto & Takai’s model. The time series of satellite thermal data (LST-day and LST-night) modified through laboratory DD parameters was validly identified to determine high-risk areas and predict the emergence times of the first generation of cotton bollworm. This was in agreement with the reports of the governmental Plant Protection Organization.

Research highlights: If there is a lack of meteorological synoptic stations in some agricultural areas, the LST data of Terra® satellite could be replaced by the meteorological data for DD forecasting models.


Download data is not yet available.


Al-Kindi KM, Kwan P, Andrew N, Welch M, 2017. Impact of environmental variables on Dubas bug infestation rate: A case study from the Sultanate of Oman. PLoS One 12: e0178109. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0178109

Amer AEA, El-Sayed AAA, Nada MA, 2009. Development of American bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera Hubner, Lepidoptera: Noctuidae, in relation to heat unit requirement. Egypt J Agric Res 87: 667-674. https://doi.org/10.21608/ejar.2009.196622

Anselin L, 2010. Local indicators of spatial association-LISA. Geogr Anal 27: 93-115. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1995.tb00338.x

Assemi H, Rezapanah M, Vafaei-Shoushtari R, Mehrvar A, 2012. Modified artificial diet for rearing of tobacco budworm, Helicoverpa armigera, using the Taguchi method and Derringer's desirability function. J Insect Sci 12: 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1673/031.012.10001

Baek S, Cho K, Song YH, Lee JH, 2008. Degree-day based models for forecasting the flight activity of adult Helicoverpa assulta (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in hot pepper fields. Int J Pest Manag 54: 295-300. https://doi.org/10.1080/09670870802203865

Barteková A, Praslička J, 2006. The effect of ambient temperature on the development of cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera Hübner, 1808). Plant Prot Sci 42: 135-138. https://doi.org/10.17221/2768-PPS

Basirat M, 2008. Estimating the heat requirements for pistachio twig moth, Kermania pistaciella Amsel in field condition. J Sci Technol Agric Nat Resour 12: 339-349.

Blum M, Nestel D, Cohen Y, et al., 2018. Predicting Heliothis (Helicoverpa armigera) pest population dynamics with an age-structured insect population model driven by satellite data. Ecol Modell 369: 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.12.019

Campbell A, Frazer BD, Gilbert N, Gutierrez AP, Mackauer M, 1974. Temperature requirements of some aphids and their parasites. J Appl Ecol 11: 431-438. https://doi.org/10.2307/2402197

Coulthard E, Norrey J, Shortall C, Harris WE, 2019. Ecological traits predict population changes in moths. Biol Conserv 233: 213-219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.02.023

Feng H, Gould F, Huang Y, et al., 2010. Modeling the population dynamics of cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) over a wide area in northern China. Ecol Model 221: 1819-1830. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.04.003

Fitt GP, Dillon ML, Hamilton JG, 1995. Spatial dynamics of Helicoverpa populations in Australia: simulation modelling and empirical studies of adult movement. Comput Electron Agric 13: 177-192. https://doi.org/10.1016/0168-1699(95)00024-X

Gonçalves RM, Mastrangelo T, Rodrigues JCV, et al., 2019. Invasion origin, rapid population expansion, and the lack of genetic structure of cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera) in the Americas. Ecol Evol 9: 7378-7401. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5123

Hassani MR, Nouri Ghanbalani G, Izadi H, Basirat M, 2010. Thermal requirements of immature stages of pistachio psylla, Agonoscena pistaciae (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) in natural conditions of Rafsanjan, Iran. Plant Prot J 2: 13-24.

Helman D, Givati A, Lensky IM, 2015. Annual evapotranspiration retrieved from satellite vegetation indices for the eastern Mediterranean at 250 m spatial resolution. Atmos Chem Phys 15: 12567-12579. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-12567-2015

Hernandez-Stefanoni JL, Ponce-Hernandez R, 2006. Mapping the spatial variability of plant diversity in a tropical forest: Comparison of spatial interpolation methods. Environ Monit Assess 117: 307-334. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-006-0885-z

Ikemoto T, Takai K, 2000. A new linearized formula for the law of total effective temperature and the evaluation of line-fitting methods with both variables subject to error. Environ Entomol 29: 671-682. https://doi.org/10.1603/0046-225X-29.4.671

Jallow MFA, Matsumura M, 2001. Influence of temperature on the rate of development of Helicoverpa armigera (Huebner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). Appl Entomol Zool 36: 427-430. https://doi.org/10.1303/aez.2001.427

Lensky IM, Dayan U, 2011. Detection of finescale climatic features from satellites and implications for agricultural planning. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92: 1131-1136. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3160.1

Liu Z, Li D, Gong P, Wu K, 2004. Life table studies of the cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), on different host plants. Environ Entomol 33: 1570-1576. https://doi.org/10.1603/0046-225X-33.6.1570

Matov A, Zahiri R, Holloway JD, 2008. The Heliothinae of Iran (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). Zootaxa 1763: 1. https://doi.org/10.11646/zootaxa.1763.1.1

Mironidis GK, Savopoulou-Soultani M, 2010. Effects of heat shock on survival and reproduction of Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) adults. J Therm Biol 35: 59-69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtherbio.2009.11.001

Noor-Ul-Ane M, Ali Mirhosseini M, Crickmore N, et al. (2018) Temperature-dependent development of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and its larval parasitoid, Habrobracon hebetor (Say) (Hymenoptera: Braconidae): implications for species interactions. Bull Entomol Res 108: 295-304. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007485317000724

Norris RF, Caswell-Chen EP, Kogan M, 2002. Concepts in integrated pest management, 1st ed. Prentice Hall.

Overmars KP, de Koning GHJ, Veldkamp A, 2003. Spatial autocorrelation in multi-scale land use models. Ecol Model 164: 257-270. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(03)00070-X

Parajulee MN, Slosser JE, Boring EP, 1998. Seasonal activity of Helicoverpa zea and Heliothis virescens (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) detected by pheromone traps in the rolling plains of Texas. Environ Entomol 27:1203-1219. https://doi.org/10.1093/ee/27.5.1203

Pruess KP, 1983. Day-degree methods for pest management. 1. Environ Entomol 12: 613-619. https://doi.org/10.1093/ee/12.3.613

Roltsch WJ, Zalom FG, Strawn AJ, et al., 1999. Evaluation of several degree-day estimation methods in California climates. Int J Biometeorol 42: 169-176. https://doi.org/10.1007/s004840050101

Room PM, 1983. Calculations of temperature-driven development by Heliothis spp. (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in the Namoi Valley, New South Wales. Aust J Entomol 22: 211-215. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1440-6055.1983.tb01877.x

Tsoukanas VI, Papadopoulos GD, Fantinou AA, Papadoulis GT, 2006. Temperature-dependent development and life table of Iphiseius degenerans (Acari: Phytoseiidae). Environ Entomol 35: 212-218. https://doi.org/10.1603/0046-225X-35.2.212

University of California IPMP, 2020. Weather, models, & degree-days. http://ipm.ucanr.edu/WEATHER/index.html. [12 Jul 2020].

Vinatier F, Tixier P, Duyck P-F, Lescourret F, 2011. Factors and mechanisms explaining spatial heterogeneity: a review of methods for insect populations. Methods Ecol Evol 2: 11-22. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00059.x

Visser ME, Both C, 2005. Shifts in phenology due to global climate change: the need for a yardstick. Proc R Soc B Biol Sci 272: 2561-2569. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2005.3356

Wakil W, Ashfaq M, Ghazanfar MU, et al., 2009. Integrated management of Helicoverpa armigera in chickpea in rainfed areas of Punjab, Pakistan. Phytoparasitica 37: 415-420. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12600-009-0059-y

Willmott CJ, 1982. Some comments on the evaluation of model performance. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 63: 1309-1313. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1982)063<1309:SCOTEO>2.0.CO;2

Zalom FG, Goodell PB, Wilson LT, et al., 1983. Degree-days: the calculation and use of heat units in pest management. University of California, Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources Leaflet. EC Work Document 1-11.

How to Cite
Jokar, M. (2022). A thermal forecasting model for the overwintering generation of cotton bollworm by remote sensing in the southeast of Caspian Sea. Spanish Journal of Agricultural Research, 20(2), e1001. https://doi.org/10.5424/sjar/2022202-18439
Plant protection